Recipe For An Upset: How Can FSU Beat Notre Dame?

Welcome back Seminole fans! Let's prepare for another season of fanatical optimism, inevitable disappointment, and a maybe... even a few pleasant surprises?

Seminole fans were given few reasons for optimism last year. As Norvell and company attempted to steer the rudderless ship Willie Taggart left behind, they also navigated the storm of COVID opt outs, no offseason program or conditioning, and attempting to implement a whole new scheme on offense and defense over a Zoom call. Needless to say, you don't have to look very hard to find a bevy of excuses to be made for FSU's coaching staff.

So fine. Last year didn't count. So let the Year 1 of the Mike Norvell era begin in earnest! Or Year 1.5 I suppose.

And Coach Norvell gets to begin year 1.5 with a tremendous opportunity, and a daunting challenge.

Brian Kelly's Notre Dame squad has been the pinnacle of consistency the past few seasons. The program is a model of stability, proving year in and year out to be a prime example of a good, quality football team. Even if they've yet to break through their ceiling to join the ranks of College Football's Elite, Brian Kelly has established an impressive program which is competitive on a yearly basis. A stout defensive front, a dynamic running game, and a proven winning culture will be an imposing challenge for this young and unproven Seminole squad.

But as FSU fans we've seen many an overmatched team give us a scare in the past despite sizeable talent differentials. Why can't Florida State be that team that scores the upset? Why can't Norvell play spoiler to Notre Dame's playoff aspirations? Why can't the Seminoles capture a little magic and put Notre Dame on the ropes in the 4th quarter?

Why not us?

Save your breath Irish fans, I'm sure you've already got plenty of answers to that question. The first of which is probably that your team is better.

My point being, upsets happen. And today I'd like to paint the picture for you. Let's imagine for a moment we're all walking out of Doak Campbell with big smiles on our faces. How do we get there? Here's my recipe for the upset:

Early Offensive Success

One thing we can gleam from watching Florida State in 2020 is that Head Coach Mike Norvell and Offensive Coordinator Kenny Dillingham can script an opening drive with the best of them. This will be especially important on September 5th.

This team needs a reason to believe. That crowd needs a reason to believe. And I believe the quickest way to reaching that goal is an efficient, on schedule, and decisive opening drive.

This changes the whole perception in that building. All the sudden the crowd has excitement and hope, and more importantly this defense gets to play with a lead for once. Notre Dame struggled to contain Jordan Travis as a runner last season, how will they fare this year with a a reinforced offensive line and even more diverse offensive scheme? Whether its on the ground with Jordan Travis and FSU's stable of capable runners, or perhaps getting creative through the air with McKenzie Milton, or some combination of both; we can only hope Norvell and Dilly have been cooking up something good in the lab this offseason that new Irish Defensive Coordinator Marcus Freeman doesn't see coming.

Because if they can, that early spark could change the complexion of this game. Establish a functional game plan, and put game pressure on Notre Dame.

Heavy Sets, Pre-Snap Motion, and a star Running Back pose a serious challenge to the FSU Defense

A Loaded Box, and a Tough Fight on the Outside

The Notre Dame offense is a fascinating blend of spread concepts with old school, smash mouth philosophy. Prioritizing their running game with heavy formations and bunch sets, Notre Dame goes bigger and heavier as the rest of the country goes lighter and faster. But with one of the best young runners in College Football in Kyren Williams, that foundation is an easy one to build off of.

But while the Notre Dame running game is a proven challenge, the passing game is more of a question mark. Inexperience at Wide Receiver and less than daunting reputation for new transfer QB Jack Coan makes the passing game certainly the lesser of two evils.

For the Florida State Defense to avoid embarrassing itself the way it did last season in South Bend, they'll need to be ready to stand stout and gap sound against the Irish rushing attack. While Florida State's Linebackers may be the weakest segment on the team, players like DJ Lundy and Amari Gainer have at least shown capability running downhill in the running game.

This then leaves Florida State's new starters at Cornerback, Travis Jay and Jarvis Brownlee, to hold up in one on one matchups on the outside. While neither player is gonna be mistaken for Deion Sanders anytime soon, both have shown a scrappiness and competitive fire necessary to make Notre Dame earn it in this matchup.

We'll probably see some flags and a few opportunities for Jack Coan if he can seize them, but at the very least the FSU secondary should make them work for it. And we'll take that over the 8.4 Yards Per Carry we surrendered to ND last year.

Presumed Starter Jordan Travis has improved greatly as a passer this offseason.

A Little Magic From Jordan Travis

Jordan Travis proved when healthy last season he can be a proficient College Quarterback. But with a full offseason to get healthier, learn this offense, and gain confidence as a passer; his ceiling could be so much more.

It perhaps a bit presumptive to put all of the burden on Travis' shoulders, as we'll likely see transfer QB McKenzie Milton get significant snaps as well; but based on camp reports it seems like Jordan has seized the job. At least for now.

And it shouldn't surprise us. Jordan Travis has one of the few truly exceptional athletic advantages on the team, and his ability as a running threat is elite. His mobility totally changed the outlook of the offensive line and running game last season, and he showed adequate arm talent to complete throws down the field once safeties cheated up.

What he lacked most as a passer was confidence. He hadn't been given time to truly learn the in's and out's of the offensive system, and hadn't yet had the experience to trust his arm. But by all reports this offseason has done wonders for Travis in that department, as he has reportedly taken a massive leap forward as a passer. His comfort in the scheme and his confidence throwing the football is apparently night and day compared to this time last year.

I'm not saying to start the Heisman chants for Jordan Travis any time soon, and he likely will still leave us wanting when it comes to diagnosing coverages or making tight throws over the middle of the field. But he's far from a one dimensional player now, and that adequate ability through the air should enable him to showcase his extraordinary ability on the ground.

For Florida State to have a chance at pulling off the upset, we'll need Jordan Travis to give the Notre Dame defense the same fits he did in South Bend a year ago, and then some. This could very well be Jordan Travis' coming out party to the rest of the College Football world.

And just imagine what a sell out crowd in Doak Campbell might sound like after a play like this on Sunday night...

Final Thoughts

A host of superstar recruits, a sellout crowd, and College Football fans from around the country will be watching to see if Florida State can make a statement against Notre Dame in primetime on September 5th. And if we're all being honest, the realists among us are probably right to believe that its simply too much for this team to overcome. The rebuild will never happen as quickly as we'd all want it too, and this Notre Dame team is in a different class than Florida State right now.

That said, the Kool-Aid drinking fan in me can't shake this feeling that we might be in for something special Sunday night. Between the crowd, this hungry group of young men, and a special feeling in the air as we honor the Bowden legacy; Notre Dame better be ready. Because I have a feeling Norvell and company are gonna be ready to play.

In the meantime, enjoy the ride Seminole fans. Football is back. Go Noles!

Totally Unrealistic Homer Biased Prediction: Noles Win the Dadgum Game