AFC Draft Breakdown: 16 Takes For Each AFC Team

Well here we sit just mere days away from the NFL Draft! Reports out of today's Virtual Test Drive for the NFL apparently went terrible, and if your not laughing thinking about a guy like Dave Gettleman broadcasting his draft plans to the entire league by forgetting to hit his mute button, then I'm sorry you just have no taste in comedy. This draft has as much opportunity for wild moments as it does being a complete and udder train wreck. Its gonna be awesome.

Last week I wrote my 16 Takes for each NFC Team, and this week we're shifting our attention to the AFC. Who can catch the Chiefs? How will the Patriots adjust to the post-Brady era? What idiotic thing will the Texans do next!? These are once again my thoughts on what each team might/should do in the NFL Draft. And once again, I'm obviously convinced I'm 100% right.

Cincinnati Bengals: Don't Overthink It

Burrow is the pick. He has to be the pick. Even if Miami tries to sell the farm, you hold firm and take Burrow. Give poor Bengals fans something to look forward too. Joe Burrow just finished the single greatest passing season in college football history. He's a total package as a passer.

If I’m Cincinnati I’m also trying to figure out offensive line early day 2, or possibly even trading into the top of the first round if there’s a run on OL. A guy like Cesar Ruiz would be a great fit as a Day 1 starter. And honestly if you solidify that OL, the Bengals have talent for Burrow to work with. Don’t ruin Joe Burrow! Do it right!

Miami Dolphins: Don't make the Herbert mistake

If I’m a Dolphins fan, I’m desperately hoping this smoke about preferring Herbert at #5 is indeed just smoke.

Maybe I'll be wrong in the end, but I'm not sold on Justin Herbert in the slightest. He's got way too much Jake Locker/Blake Bortles in his DNA. A perpetual underachiever at Oregon, he's being touted on his size and arm strength rather than any actual on-field production.

If he’s available, take Tua at #5. If he’s not, do the right thing and go best player available. Cause I can guarantee you Justin Herbert will not be the best player available.

Also, it’s fun having a million picks but it’s more fun if they’re actually good players. You’ve got the flexibility and the draft capital, move up and go get the guys you need to make your franchise watchable. Taking Tua at #5 and trading up for an OT in the early teens would be a home run.

In the back end, just continue to take best player available. I’d personally favor offense if I’m Miami, as you’ve got a fair weather fan base that needs lots of convincing to tune in. I'd love to see them snag a quality runner like JK Dobbins or Deandre Swift, and you probably need to come out of this draft with at least two new starters on the offensive line.

Los Angeles Chargers: Don't get desperate.

You don’t have the draft capital to match Miami in a bidding war to move up, but you’re also not as desperate. Tyrod is... fine. And there’s always guys like Cam or Jameis after the draft if you really need to fill out the QB room.

If you’re confident Tua can be your guy then go get him. Otherwise, sit back and let the board fall. Maybe Miami is dumb enough to take Herbert and Tua falls to you. Maybe you can grab a stud like Isaiah Simmons and really challenge that division leaning on your defense instead. Can you imagine Simmons and Derwin James on the same defense? What the hell do you do about that?

Just don’t get desperate and reach on a guy like Love or Herbert at pick #6. Yeesh.

Jacksonville Jaguars: Remember when the Jags were good?

What a weird team right now. The Ngakoue thing is such a bummer for them. Remember when Jalen Ramsey, Telvin Smith, Yannick Ngakoue, and Calais Campbell were all kicking ass together and almost going to the Super Bowl? Man do those days feel long gone. Thanks Tom Coughlin.

They need juice on defense, and they need to build on offense around Minshew. I think if I’m running the Jags my 3 goals are:

Get the best return possible for Ngakoue. He’s not coming back, so get what you can. A late 1st or Early 2nd makes sense considering what a team will have to pay him.
Take the best defender possible at #9 and #20, maybe trade back a few picks if the opportunity is there. Guys like Kinlaw, Chaisson, Henderson, or Gladney.
Take the best receiver available in the 2nd round. If we’re actually gonna evaluate Minshew, let’s give him enough targets to give him a chance. I’d love a big body to go opposite WR DJ Chark. A guy like Tee Higgins from Clemson or Michael Pittman from USC would be great.

Cleveland Browns: Shoot for the highest floor

Unless Isaiah Simmons slides this far, don’t hesitate and just take your highest rated OT. You’re likely in a position that at least 1 of the top 4 OT’s are still here (Wills, Wirfs, Becton, Thomas). For me, I’d also go safe here. So much of that team is already combustible, take the safer pick like Wills or Wirfs if you can.

Wills is my favorite lineman in this draft, and his toughness and versatility is a perfect fit for the personality Kevin Stefanski is looking to instill in his team in year one.

We need to see improvement on Baker, and the first step is letting him get more comfortable in the pocket. You've gotta hope that if you accomplish that step, you can finally get the most out of Beckham and Company.

New York Jets: The WR's are tempting, but exploit that depth later

It’s either a tackle or wide receiver for the Jets. The Jets need to build around Sam Darnold, and both WR and OT are desperate needs. With the run on tackles likely going full steam by the time the Jets are on the clock, I understand the logic in taking your 1st option at WR over your 3rd or 4th option at tackle, but there’s such a steeper drop off at OT. Take your new franchise tackle at get Sam Darnold a new target in the 2nd Round.

Undoubtedly really strong players like Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman, Leviska Shenault, or Jalen Raegor will be there at the top of round 2. Considering you already have a speed guy in Breshad Perrimen, I'd focus on a possession guy like Higgins or Pittman.

If you are gonna go receiver at #11, I’d take Ceedee Lamb first. He’s got the potential to be a perfect go-to guy for Darnold early in his career.

Las Vegas Raiders: Versatility abound in Mayock's second draft

I wonder if this is a team that’ll sit where their at with these two picks, or if a trade up is possible. If a guy like Okudah slides to #7 or #8, I have to imagine the Raiders will be very interested. If they stay put, take the best WR and CB on the board at #12 and #19. Probably in that order.

Any of the top 3 WR’s could fit, and at CB expect a big school guy. Mayock loves Clemson and Bama players, it might be the first spot AJ Terrell it even Trevon Diggs year their names called. And if they have a chance at CJ Henderson, especially at #19, Mayock is likely spamming Goodell's inbox.

Denver Broncos: If you really think Lock has a chance, give him the best chance possible

Denver seems to like Drew Lock, and while I’m still skeptical about his potential, I’m all about putting pieces around young passers to get rid of any excuses. So snag one of the top WR’s or OT’s if they’re still there.

You've got a solid wide receiver in Courtland Sutton and talent at running back with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsey. If Noah Fant can get it together he's got a lot of talent as well.

I think Ruggs is the dream scenario here. The speed demon out of Tuscaloosa would compliment Sutton well. He's got the juice in the short and screen game to take it the distance, and his deep speed would allow Lock use that big arm for all it's worth.

In a worse case scenario where they’re all gone, take a guy like CJ Henderson and give your defense a chance against KC.

New England Patriots: How does Bill draft for the Brady-less Patriots?

In standard Patriots fashion, does anyone know what the hell Belicheck is gonna do? Are they really gonna roll with QBJarrett Stidham as Tom Brady’s heir apparent? Do they try to give Stidham weapons at WR, or do they double down on defense under the assumption they’ll need that to carry them this season?

To me, guys like Iowa DE A.J. Epenesa and Penn State DE Yetur Gross-Matos feel like Patriots picks to me. I could also see them taking a guy like LSU OG/C Cesar Ruiz early. Or maybe they’ll go totally off the wall and snag a sliding QB to develop alongside Stidham? Nobody ever knows what the Pats are gonna do, but this year is especially nebulous.

Baltimore Ravens: How can they ensure lightning strikes twice?

Coming off the wonder season from QB Lamar Jackson, I think Baltimore’s #1 priority needs to be making sure that’s not just a flash in the pan. Replicating Lamar’s 2019 success, or atleast something close to it, is the biggest factor here. And it might need to look different! It’s probably not viable for Lamar to be running as often as he did this last season.

It’s for that reason that I think Baltimore should strongly consider taking a RB early in this draft. Maybe not 1st round, but I wouldn’t hate it! Give Lamar a pure runner like Dobbins, Taylor, or Akers. Or a dual threat like De’Andre Swift or Clyde Edwards-Helaire. This allows the Ravens to keep a diverse and powerful running game while letting Lamar’s talent be a threat and rather than something for Defensive Coordinators to key on.

Otherwise, bolster the front seven with a guy like Patrick Queen or Kenneth Murray.

Tennessee Titans: How to bolster the LOS for Henry and Company?

Tennessee has a void at Offensive and Defensive line after losing Jack Conklin to free agency and Jurrell Casey via trade in return for 7th round pick. Man, I had to look that trade up again, cause it was so unbelievable. Does Jon Robinson like owe Elway money or something?

Regardless, I think if I’m Tennessee my dream pick is Isaiah Wilson, but I’m not sure he’ll still be on the board. The mauler from Georgia has incredible athleticism for his size, and power for days. Can you imagine being a DB and having that guy pulling over to block you? I'd quit.

After that, some edge players like A.J. Epenesa, Yetur Gross-Matos, or Wisconsin Edge Rushers Zach Braun would be solid values as well. I also wouldn’t rule out corner if a nice player like CB A.J. Terrell slips to #28.

Kansas City Chiefs: Draft lots of young talent now, because soon its all you'll be able to afford

Kansas City is a team with some real deficiencies, it’s just that we all overlook those deficiencies because they have the most electrifying player in football on their team. These issues will only be compounded however once that electifying player is actually paid like the super-ultra-mega star he is. Having a player the caliber of Patrick Mahomes on a rookie contract is the ultimate cheat code, but that luck is about to run out. Continuing to hit on young, cheap talent is their best chance for continued success.

They desperately need cornerback help and their interior offensive line is a bit shaky. Sometime on Day 2/Early Day 3 replacing Kareem Hunt’s production at RB is valuable as well. Plus, KC needs more picks, making a trade down very likely.

A.J. Terrell is the dream here, but he might not be there. One player I like for KC is the raw but very talented Noah Igbinoghene. He’s got all the measurable you could ever want, he’s just inexperienced having only played corner for the past two years. Kansas City has the benefit however of always playing with a lead, and not depending on their defense to win games. They can afford a few rookie mistakes by a high upside player! Plus, they can likely snag Igbinoghene in the early 2nd even after trading down.

Indianapolis Colts: Another balancing act, immediate needs or build for the future?

Phillip Rivers is here now, but you gotta imagine they’ve begun looking to the future at the position. Jordan Love has been linked to them if he’s there in the early second round, but could they be enamored by a big arm like Jacob Eason, or a proven winner like Jalen Hurts? Both are likely on the board for the Colts in the second round, and could make for excellent protégés under Rivers.

If they decide to draft for immediate needs, getting a reliable playmaker opposite TY Hilton is a top priority. This could be a great spot for a guy who can give them a RAC threat like Leviska Shenault.

Houston Texans: Is their any way Bill O'Brien salvage this?

Man. Deshaun Watson is so good. Can you imagine if they got him a true #1 receiver? A guy like Deandre Hopkins? Oh. Wait.

Sorry B.O.B. but I’m not buying what you’re selling. You say you traded Hopkins because he "wanted more money", and then absorb two of the most bloated, under-performing contracts in the league in RB David Johnson and WR Brandin Cooks. Those moves would've been awesome four years ago.

But fine, if you wanna try and make sense of Houston’s long term plan, it’s gotta start with the best Defensive Lineman available at #40. There’s actually a good chance some solid options will be there such as Zach Braun or Neville Galimore.

Buffalo Bills: With a bolstered WR Corps, lets get younger on defense

Assuming you can keep him happy, WR Stefon Diggs is an awesome value for the Bills. Will he get frustrated when Josh Allen consistently throws over his head and have the whole situation explode in their face? Who knows, but they acquired a really nice player.

Shifting to defense though, even with adding some veteran corners, guys like Josh Norman and EJ Gaines are not long term starters t vorner in 2020. At #54 they’ve got a chance to add a solid corner to go opposite CB Tredavious White. VM Damon Arnette our of Ohio State could be a really solid option there of some of the other top guys are off the board.

Pittsburgh Steelers: With an aging roster, the second round is essential

Pittsburgh is in a weird gray area between trying to win now and build for the future. With a lot of major players getting older, both in obvious (Big Ben) and sneaky positions. (Looking at you 32 year old Joe Haden)

Attacking Edge rusher should be priority 1, but if a 1st round caliber corner or receiver is on the board that would be a solid pick as well. Either way they need to keep infusing young players all over the field. No needs are glaring, just make sure you nail it with whoever you take. I might really like a guy like Alabama CB Trevon Diggs for Pittsburgh if he slides into the second round. They love long, athletic DB's like that.

Final Thoughts:

With the Kansas City Chiefs seemingly poised to seize the AFC throne from the once mighty New England Patriots, the rest of the conference remains very unpredictable. Even among last years playoff teams, would it shock anyone if players like Lamar Jackson and Ryan Tannehill (Weird putting those to in the same sentence) fell back to earth and brought their teams with them? Meanwhile the Texans are imploding, and the Bills are pinning their hopes to the most inconsistent passer in the NFL. The Conference is poised for turnover, and yet with the truncated nature of this off season due to Covid-19 we could see teams with continuity on their coaching staffs and rosters get out to an unfair advantage. Teams that can find pro-ready, high floor starters rather than developmental projects will certainly be short term winners this season.

But as we look ahead to Thursday, this Draft remains the most unpredictable one to date! Unknowns on player medicals, inability to get accurate Pro Day #’s, and inability to hold private workouts make this a draft based on old school tape Scouting first and foremost. Add in the frenetic nature of the virtual format, and we honestly don’t know what to expect. It’s gonna be a wild, weird ride; but I cannot wait to see how it all unfolds.

Enjoy the draft my friends, and stay tuned for my Day 2 Draft Preview on Friday! Until next time, later homers!