Homer Bias 2020 NFL Mock Draft
- Nelson Thielen
- Apr 22, 2020
- 11 min read
Ah Mock Drafts. The junk food of sports coverage. They’re impossible to resist, and yet often times you come away no more fulfilled than when you started.
But I don’t know about you, but during this quarantine I’ve eaten more junk food than I can measure! (Both literally and metaphorically) So screw it! We could all use some click bait and sports junk food right now! Let’s get started!
1. Bengals: QB Joe Burrow, LSU
The Bengals snag the draft’s best signal caller. The hometown kid from Ohio is coming off the greatest QB season of all time last year at LSU, and is the kind of talent and killer instinct that can totally change the identity of the franchise.
2. Redskins: EDGE Chase Young, Ohio State
Ron Rivera is a good coach, but boldness was never a strength of his. And while he might/should be tempted to be bold and hit the reset button at QB, or trade back and accrue lots of picks, I think he takes the safer option and drafts a generational talent in Chase Young. It’s not a dire position of need, but this team is in need of young star power. Chase Young will be a Superstar and household name in D.C. early in his career.
3. TRADE! Panthers: QB Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Probably my most controversial pick in this mock. Detroit wants out if this slot, that’s not a shock, but everyone assumes that it’d be Miami or LAC making a move up for Tua. But I think the stare down between Miami and LAC has resulted in both teams sitting patient. I’ve begun genuinely believing Miami prefers Herbert, and LAC isn’t desperate enough to make their move and would rather wait and see if Tua falls.
But the Panthers have a perfect setup to go after Tua. Teddy Bridgewater can act as a quality bridge for Tua until he’s ready, and Tua fits like a glove into the offense HC Matt Ruhl and OC Joe Brady want to run. They’ve been eerily quiet when it comes to the QB position but I don’t think anyone in Carolina wants their long term vision to be married to Teddy’s 6.8 air yards per attempt. And after their down year last season, I don’t think this new regime is interested in tanking enough to find themselves with this opportunity again next season. Be bold, go get your guy!
4. Giants: OT Jedrick Wills, Alabama
The Giants take the best pure tackle in this draft. Wills is an awesome blocker in the passing and running game, and instantly makes the lives of Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones much easier. He’s a high floor, foundational player that could be a Giant for the next decade. He's pro ready, and ready to keep Daniel Jones alive in 2020.
5. Dolphins: QB Justin Herbert, Oregon
I hate making this pick. I love too many Dolphins fans in my life to watch this franchise do this to them again. But I honestly think it happens.
Herbert has physical tools to impress. He’s sneaky fast, and he’s got a big arm. Unfortunately, what he doesn’t have is the ability to read a defense. Or deal with pressure in the pocket. Or throw with anticipation. Or throw with consistent accuracy.
I think Herbert has a chance to develop and prove me wrong. He’s got all the physicals to make it happen. However, he was a one read/scramble quarterback who never operated anything resembling a pro system in college and has his own injury history that no one seems to bring up in this debate.
Let's hope this buzz in the recent days of them skipping QB isn't just a smokescreen. Because while he may prove me wrong, I think Miami picks a less talented, more injury prone version of Josh Allen on Thursday. And that should drive Dolphins fans insane.
6. Chargers: LB/S Isaiah Simmons, Clemson
Missing out on Tua and having the Dolphins take the Herbert temptation out of their hands, the Chargers could look at OL here. That said, if the Chargers want any chance of slowing down Mahomes then pairing stud S Derwin James with another high flying hybrid is a devastating combination that I think is too good to pass up.
7. TRADE! Lions: CB Jeff Okudah, Ohio State
Dream scenario for Detroit. They get the picks they want by trading back, and still get the player they wanted at #3. Jeff Okudah gives them a cheap, young replacement to Darius Slay that should be ready to start week 1.
8. Cardinals: OT Tristian Wirfs, Iowa
Arizona considers a trade back here, but is ultimately too enamored by the versatility Wirfs can bring to their offensive line. He can play almost any spot on the line, and gives HC Kliff Kingsbury the necessary upgrade up front to allow Kyler and company to truly run his gameplan. With this pick, Arizona just became dangerous in 2020.
9. TRADE! Bucs: OT Andrew Thomas, Georgia
With two tackles off the board, Tampa can’t afford to wait and see if one of the top linemen slip past the Browns or Jets. They get aggressive and move up with Jacksonville to secure the protection Brady needs to operate in 2020. Thomas is an awesome player, and immediately opens up that whole offense to operate much more efficiently. You made a move for Brady, double down and make your move for his blindside.
10. Browns: OT Mekhi Becton, Louisville
In this scenario the Browns snag the last elite tackle left, and grab the one with the most upside by far. Becton needs some development, but he will be their best run blocker for Nick Chubb from Day 1. And in pass protection his foundation is great, it just needs to be built up to find consistency. Louisville ran mostly RPO's and quick screens in 2019, limiting his experience in tradition pass blocking. But guys this big aren’t supposed to move this quick and smooth, and Cleveland could take a huge step forward if they can keep Baker Mayfield upright in 2020.
11. Jets: WR Ceedee Lamb, Oklahoma
The Jets might’ve considered a tackle here, but relish the opportunity to take the draft’s best receiver. Ceedee Lamb gives Sam Darnold a dependable set of hands, an explosive runner after the catch, and a contested catch monster with exceptional ball tracking and body control. He can operate at all three levels as a receiver, and is the kind of receiver that can be the focal point of an offense. He needs to adjust to press coverage, but if he can he’s got the biggest upside in this class of receivers.
12. Raiders: CB C.J. Henderson, Florida
Mayock has a tough decision here, but ultimately sees the drop off at corner to be steeper than the drop off at receiver. He snags the best pure cover corner in this draft. While CJ Henderson lacks Okudah’s versatility and well-rounded play, he makes up for it by being elite in man coverage. He’s a diva, not a great tackler, and sometimes has effort problems; but with quality coaching he’s a possible superstar.
13. 49ners: WR Henry Ruggs III, Alabama
Elite 4.27 speed. Toughness. Great hands. Quality route runner. Henry Ruggs III is lightning in a bottle, and is a chance to put points on the board whenever he touches the ball. And he just landed with one of the most creative play callers in football. Kyle Shanahan just found his Tyreek Hill.
14. TRADE! Jaguars: DT Derrick Brown, Auburn
An absolute steal at #14, the Jags snag a top 5 player here. Brown is an absolute monster; and his power, motor, and instincts will make him a plug and play starter with all pro potential early in his career.
15. Broncos: WR Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
The last of the big 3 to come off the board, but it wouldn’t shock me if he’s the first gone on Draft night. Jeudy provides a dynamic upside, paired with the route running to make his floor an instant impact starter in year 1. His ability to gain natural separation with his silky smooth routes and change of direction translate immediately, and unlike most college receivers Jeudy ran an NFL route tree at Alabama. Elway might’ve just picked the offensive rookie of the year.
16. Falcons: DT Javon Kinlaw, South Carolina
The Falcons are reportedly interested in moving up for a premier defender, but in this mock I have them staying patient and still getting their guy. Javon Kinlaw gives major versatility as an interior pass rusher and pocket penetrator will give Atlanta an awesome combo between Kinlaw and standout Grady Jarrett. Kinlaw is an ascending talent that has yet to hit his ceiling, and is the type of raw talent any DL coach dreams of.
17. Dallas: DE K’Lavon Chaisson, LSU
Elite physical tools. The combination of first step quickness, violent tackling, long arms, and top end explosiveness give Chaisson the potential to be a perfect match across from Demarcus Ware. He’s raw, but sky is the limit for this guy in the mold of Danielle Hunter.
18. Dolphins: OT Josh Jones, Houston
I think the Dolphins will be tempted to trade up for one of the Top 4 Tackles, but in this scenario they let the board fall to them.
A 4 year starter at Houston, Josh Jones has elite athleticism for his position. Despite plenty of experience, his technical development during his time at Houston was lacking, but if he can clean up his footwork he could be a perfect replacement for Laremy Tunsil.
19. Raiders: WR Justin Jefferson, LSU
Opting to pass on a receiver at #12, the Raiders attack that need here with Jefferson. Jefferson is a consistent, smooth route runner who’d likely be the WR1 in most draft classes. His speed is legit at 4.43, and if he can learn to get off press coverage he can be an inside/outside player. Year 1 though, he’ll be an elite red zone weapon and a favorite for Derek Carr out of the slot.
20. TRADE! Vikings: CB Jeff Gladney, TCU
The Jags and Eagles are potential corner teams, and Minnesota can’t afford to miss out here. So they swing a deal that Jacksonville is happy to take, as they’ll be just as happy taking the top safety a few picks later.
With their choice of corner, GM Rick Spielman deviates from their standard physical mold a bit for a player that presents dynamic traits that should make him an effective Year 1 starter. Gladney is tough, scrappy, and versatile. His size is a departure from guys like Xavier Rhodes, but 6’0 is by no means short and he’s got long arms which the Vikings value heavily. He’s got legit speed, a nasty attitude, and a high football IQ that should put him on the field early in his career.
21. Eagles: CB Kristian Fulton, LSU
The Eagles grab Fulton here, who I can’t fault anyone for having rated higher than Gladney who was taken a pick before him. He’s got exceptional man coverage ability, and many of his faults are likely correctable through coaching. That being said, he’s not a great tackler and will need to sure that up in order to deal with the quality runners in that division. He’s got pro-bowl potential though, and a very high floor in coverage.
22. TRADE! Jaguars: S Xavier McKinney, Alabama
Xavier McKinney is a player the Jags will never need to take off the field. He’s got the range to be a single high center fielder, and the versatility to come down into the nickel, or defend the run as a box safety. He’s the kind of Swiss Army Knife the Jags need, and would be an step back in the right direction for their struggling defense in need of an Alpha Dog.
23. Patriots: DE Yetur Gross-Matos, Penn State
I don’t know if it’s as much about their need at pass rusher or the fact that I always think guys with funny names belong on the Patriots, but doesn’t Gross Matos feel like the kind of Belichick prototype that’ll be wrecking the league a few years from now? Another raw talent, but his athleticism should make him a well rounded Edge defender with pass rush upside.
24. Saints: LB Patrick Queen, LSU
Tempted by the athletic signal caller from Utah State, the Saints decide instead to take a player that can help them in the waning chapter of their Super Bowl window.
Fast, instinctive, and smart; Patrick Queen is a plug and play starter who’s viable on all 3 downs. He's electric chase and tackle defender with great coverage skills.
25. Vikings: OT Austin Jackson, USC
The Vikings are prime trade back candidates here at #25, but there just wasn't a player demanding a trade up for any other teams in this scenario.
So even if it's a bit of a reach here, a guy I think the Vikings are gonna love is Austin Jackson. He excelled as a starter at USC, and while he had a down year in 2019 that can be directly attributed to a bone marrow transplant he did for his sister. Despite that weakening some of his power in 2019, he still showed elite movement skills for the Trojans. I think he's a great fit for OC Gary Kubiak's zone running scheme, and he'll only get better as he gets stronger going forward.
26. Dolphins: S Grant Delpit, LSU
This time a year ago, Delpit was considered a Top 5 pick. Now, his evaluation is all over the map after a lackluster senior season. He’s got elite range and athleticism, but he also made plenty of “business decisions” as a tackler last season. However while he might drive fans a bit crazy with occasional missed tackles, his skills in coverage and versatility is too much to pass up.
27. Seahawks: OT Isaiah Wilson, Georgia
Doesn't Isaiah Wilson just feel like a Seahawk? The developmental tackle from Georgia is a hulking mass of humanity who can immediately contribute in the run game. He needs to refine his technique in pass protection and work on his balance, but he's exactly the kind of guy Seattle likes.
28. Ravens: LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma
The Ravens front seven can use an infusion of young talent, and Kenneth Murray brings elite chase and tackle athleticism along with outstanding leadership. Let him trigger downhill and blow up blockers, it’ll be fun to watch.
29. Titans: DE A.J. Epenesa, Iowa
The Titans need help at OT and DE, and the DE is a better value here. A solid replacement for Jurell Casey, A.J. Epenesa is a versatile piece. He’s a great run defender on the Edge, and on third down slide him inside and watch wreck the point of attack. He’s a consistent power rusher with the ability to slide up and down the line at will.
30. Packers: WR Denzel Mims, Baylor
The Cheeseheads grab another size/speed combo at receiver in the mold that they covet, the difference being that this one seems to actually be consistent threat rather as opposed to the various flashes in the pan they’ve tried the past few seasons. (Valdes-Scantling, St. Brown, Lizaard). Mims has elite speed, good size, and body control. He ran a limited route tree at Baylor, but he could be a solid compliment to Davante Adams early.
31. TRADE! Colts: QB Jordan Love, Utah State
The 49ners are desperate for picks, and I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they traded down again in this scenario from pick #34. Meanwhile, a 5th year option is very valuable for a team drafting a rookie QB; and I think Indy will value that enough to slide up for it.
Jordan Love needs cleaning up in his game. He’s got elite arm talent and good athleticism, but he regressed in 2019. That said, the talent around him at Utah State was poor and it’s hard to blame him for making mistakes and trying to hard with that surrounding cast. Here, he can sit behind Phillip Rivers and learn for a few years.
32. Chiefs: Noah Igbinoghene, Auburn
Let’s play a game. Can you name the Chiefs top 2 corners without looking? I couldn’t. We all watched them in the Super Bowl more recently than any other team. Alright, maybe you got Bashaud Breeland, who isn’t terrible, but if you told me you got Charvarius Ward without looking you’re either a Chiefs fan or a liar.
Noah Igbinoghene is a raw prospect with awesome athletic upside. The former track star has only two seasons of experience at corner, and yet has already flashed in a big way. He’s got explosive athleticism and a sturdy build for the position. He needs to get better at the catch point, but he’s got elite body control. For a team that’s not exactly dependent on their defense to bail them out of close contests, the Chiefs can afford rookie mistake from Igbinoghene early, especially with his chance to become a quality starter by season’s end.
Final Thoughts:
Well. There it is guys. That’s the first round as I see it. And the good news? We only have to wait less than 24 hours to see just how wrong I was! In the meantime, comment below your thoughts!
Enjoy the Draft everyone!
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